In Ukraine and Gaza, China’s great power comes with great responsibility
- Beijing is starting to have a say in regions where it has traditionally downplayed any security role, but this comes at a cost
History
is mostly made up of the mundane but remembered for the remarkable. For
historians of Chinese diplomacy, China’s success in
restoring diplomatic ties between arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia might well be remembered as a turning point. The signing of the
Beijing Declaration
for unity by 14 Palestinian factions should have raised eyebrows
further – in a most volatile region, China has succeeded in herding the
cats, at least for a while.
Can China build on these to become a global peacemaker?
The
precondition to being a peacemaker is being trusted for neutrality or,
more precisely, impartiality. The neutrality of great powers is not
normally very reliable because, given the realism of international
relations, self-interest could drive them to alter the distribution of
world power in their favour. That is why when it comes to honest
brokers, people often think of middle powers such as Norway, Switzerland
and Sweden.
But China stands out. Unlike
Britain or
France,
it has no historic burden of being a coloniser. Unlike Russia, which
would use force to maintain its spheres of influence, China needs no
such spheres as its influence, especially in the global economy, is
ubiquitous. And unlike the United States, China has shown
no missionary zest
to police the world through hegemony or alliance. All of China’s
military operations overseas in recent decades, whether in peacekeeping,
counterpiracy or disaster relief, have been invariably humanitarian in
nature.
If
China has waded into deeper waters in the Middle East, then in Ukraine,
Beijing has tried its best to strike a balance in a war between two of
its friends.
It
has almost never voted against or vetoed any of the UN resolutions
condemning Russia, but rather only abstained. While the US-led Nato has
provided full military support to Ukraine, Beijing has provided no
military aid or weapons to Moscow. True, China’s trade with Russia has
helped it
skirt Western sanctions,
but the trade went on before the war and none of it violates
international rules or regimes. Last year, Ukraine’s largest trading
partner remained China, with a trade revenue of around US$12.9 billion.
02:02
China skips international peace conference on Ukraine, calls for negotiations ‘as soon as possible’
It remains to be seen how China’s
12-point peace plan and its six-point
joint proposal
with Brazil might work. After all, China is not the only country that
has tabled a peace plan, and all peace plans rest on the precondition of
a ceasefire.
But none is in sight. Russia must gain full control of the
four annexed regions
in Eastern Ukraine to be able to declare victory while a Ukraine fully
supported by the West has every reason not to relinquish territory.
Still, no war can last forever. As Ukrainian forces lose ground and the US gears up for a presidential election that could
fundamentally change Western support for Ukraine, Kyiv may find it imperative to reach out to Beijing.
During his first
trip to China
since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian Foreign
Minister Dmytro Kuleba said “a just peace” in Ukraine is in China’s
strategic interests and that Beijing’s role as “a global force for
peace” is important.
01:47
Ukraine says it’s ready to resume ‘good faith’ negotiations with Russia
Beijing
can help in at least three ways. First, it can facilitate a ceasefire
dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv. Russia was not invited to the
peace summit
held in Switzerland in June and China did not attend. Now Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for a second peace summit to be
held in a Global South country, and suggested that Russia could be
invited. Could that Global South country be China? Should the warring
parties agree, Beijing could well be the willing host.
Second,
China could, with other major powers, help provide a collective
security guarantee for an armistice, the most likely scenario so far
after a ceasefire. Without such a guarantee, Ukraine can never be sure
that Russia will remain content with what it has annexed, and Russia
would worry about the annexed lands becoming another Afghanistan with
Ukrainian fighters playing the role of the
1980s mujahideen.
Other
questions are bound to crop up. If Ukraine has to give up some of its
territory, where will the new border be drawn? Will the contested
territory be put under an international trusteeship with proper
referendums so residents can state their preferences? Will peacekeeping
forces be allowed to monitor ceasefire lines?
None
of these issues can be bilaterally resolved by Moscow and Kyiv. They
demand United Nations involvement and a large dose of US-China
cooperation. If Russia listened to anyone, it would be China. The onus
on the US, then, is to secure Ukrainian cooperation.
Third,
China is in a better position than any other country to help with
post-war rehabilitative reconstruction, be it in Ukraine or Gaza. In
March last year, the World Bank estimated the cost of the reconstruction
and restoration of Ukraine’s infrastructure at US$411 billion, more
than double its 2023 gross domestic product. According to the UN,
reconstructing Gaza will need US$40-50 billion at least, with rebuilding
lost homes alone taking a minimum of 16 years.
While
who will pay for reconstruction in Ukraine and Gaza remains an open
question, China’s capabilities in infrastructure-building, which are
second to none, can most certainly help.
It
is intriguing to see how Beijing is starting to have a say in Europe
and the Middle East where it has traditionally pursued economic gains
and downplayed any security role. When China started reforms in the late
1970s, it was
“crossing the river by feeling the stones”.
It is now wading into the ocean and there is no seabed it can touch nor
can it turn back. Being a responsible global power comes at a price.
Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret) is a senior fellow of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University